Suzanne Rice

Nov 22 2019

Predicting Year 2000 – 1989

Recently, I was looking for something, rummaging through some storage boxes in the basement. Before I found what I was looking for, I ran across an old work folder from the ‘80s. One of the items in the folder caught my eye, an internal corporate newsletter, dated 4^th Quarter, 1989. In it was an opinion article written by me, which I had long since forgotten.

At the time, I was the manager of an internal computer consulting department for The Coca-Cola Company in Atlanta. In those days, computers were still being deployed to desktops. We had not yet reached the point where a computer was considered an essential part of every professional employee job role. The department’s mission was to promote and assist in increasing employee and company productivity through increased use of computers. The newsletter was actually produced by my department and focused on computer topics for the edification of employees.

The article began with a perspective on the amazing growth of computer technology in the ‘80s. Then, it looked toward the new millennium – only 10 years away. What might it have in store for us? So, in the rest of the article I made some predictions regarding what we might expect in the way of computing technology advancements by the year 2000.

In re-reading the article I found myself drifting into a somewhat retrospective state and I began to reflect back to the beginning of my career interest in computers. That took me all the way back to Cow Year at West Point. One of my courses that year was titled “Computer Science Fundamentals”.

Cadet Keying Program — Cadet keying program into punch cards

I think it was an elective course, but it may have been one of the core courses that we all had to take, can’t remember. It basically consisted of learning FORTRAN language programming, although the Academy referred to it as “CADETRAN”. Anyway, I really liked it and found that I had some talent for it. I made a mental note that the computer field might be something to pursue after an Army career.

Fortran Computer System 1970s — Computer punch card of the 1970’s

My next encounter with computing technology was in 1970, at Fort Carson, Co., during my first Field Artillery assignment. Our 8-inch self-propelled howitzer unit was involved in field testing “FADAC” (Field Artillery Digital Automatic Computer). Classmate cannoneers reading this may also have encountered it. FADAC was a metal, olive drab box, containing a specialized computer, with a built-in keyboard and small screen. Its’ purpose was to calculate artillery fire direction values such as azimuth, charge, elevation, etc., based on feedback from the Forward Observer. In our tests we ran FADAC in parallel with our manual calculations. I recall that in just about every case the manual calculations team completed and had new fire direction values ready well ahead of the FADAC team. In those early days of computing technology capability and speed, I guess FADAC was not ready for prime time.

In 1974, at the end of my service obligation, I decided to change direction from an Army career and join the civilian world. Pondering “what next?”, I thought back to that “CADETRAN” course and decided to begin work toward an MS Computer Science degree at Virginia Tech. This was at a time when computing technology was still quite primitive. There weren’t any PC’s, the internet was years away, and no one had a cell phone. Most computers were behemoths that filled large room(s). Students still had to use punch cards to read programs into the computer. Remember those?

Degree completion took me into my corporate career in information technology. After a few years at Shell Oil, I moved on to Coca-Cola, where I spent the majority of my career. After 10 years at Coca-Cola, that brings us up to 1989 and that newsletter article. So, what did I predict in 1989 for the state of computing technology in year 2000?

A graphic user interface (Windows, MAC) becomes the universal PC standard (at the time there were numerous PC’s still using a DOS interface).
Standalone PC’s (which was mostly the case then) become fully networked.
Fingerprint scanning becomes the PC identity and logon standard.
Voice commands become the standard for PC control.
Email use explodes and becomes ubiquitous (email was very limited in 1989 and mostly on internal company mainframes).
Video files will be watchable on a PC and sent to others via email.
The rolodex becomes obsolete, along with significant reduction in paper filing.

What do old computers look like — PC 1981

How’d I do? Blew #’s 3 & 4 but did reasonably well on the rest. However, even those two were still correct in one sense. They occurred a decade or so later than 2000 and for a different device – the cell phone. Both of those capabilities are now in use on cell phones, but have never become commonplace on PC’s.

There are numerous other key computing technology achievements in the last 30 years that I would not have even conceived of in 1989.

A few examples:

The Internet
Cell phones as computers, cameras, GPS units
The degree of advancement in AI sophistication
Google, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, Amazon, Map routing and a myriad of other useful applications
Flat monitors
Thumb drives
Broadband everywhere

Now, we’re in the 4^th quarter of 2019, so, what do I predict for 2030 and beyond? Nope, not going there! Let me share 3 historical predictions by noted experts that were spectacularly wrong:

“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home” – Ken Olson (Founder, Digital Equipment Corporation) – 1977
“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse” – Robert Metcalf (Inventor of Ethernet) – 1995
“There is no chance that the IPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” – Steve Ballmer (Former Microsoft CEO) – 2007

If the CEO of the world’s premier software company can botch a prediction that badly, I think I’ll just rest on the partial success of my 1989 predictions. Plus, I always keep in mind Yogi Berra’s wisdom, when he once said: “Predictions are hard, especially when they’re about the future”.

Nov 10 2019

Gary Steele, Tight End – 2008

On 12 October 1968, a Saturday, Army hosted Cal-Berkeley at West Point. Rain and cold had cancelled the regular Saturday morning full-dress parade on the Plain. The weather was not what the favored Cal team (ranked 16^th) was accustomed to.

For some reason that I’ve forgotten, I was invited to help man the chain gang at Michie Stadium¹

Move the chains football — Work of a football “chain gang”

I had never done that before, so all my senses went into high gear. “Don’t screw this up!” Seeing the game up close is quite different from standing in row 35. You get an intimate sense for how tremendously kinetic the Division 1 game is, and how phenomenally athletic the best players are.

The foul weather and good defense on both sides kept it a low-scoring game. Somewhere in the third quarter, Army had the ball and was moving toward the Cal goal line, at the south end of Michie. I was holding my first down pole on the east side of the field, around the Cal 30, when the ball snapped and our big tight end Gary Steele exploded off the line, heading straight for me. He was flying, a lot faster than he looked from the stands, and his defender matched him stride for stride.

As the play developed, Steve Lindell ² threw a pass toward Gary. From my unique perspective, it was obvious that the pass was long and too high. Gary couldn’t possibly reach it. It would go incomplete. Too bad.

Gary Army — Gary (82) in action on October 12, 1968

Wrong! Gary kept on at full tilt, and at the uniquely perfect instant, jumped what looked like ten feet off the ground, a good two feet over his defender. He hauled in that pass and got two feet in just before momentum took him out of bounds, a couple feet from me. Wow – Unbelievable catch! First down! A couple plays later, Army scored our only touchdown, and ultimately upset Cal, 10-7. Grateful plebes fell out at tables all over the Corps.³

That was our senior year, and Gary’s best. He caught 27 passes for 496 yards and three touchdowns. Against 4^th-ranked Penn State, possibly our toughest opponent that year, he caught eight passes for 156 yards, breaking the Army single-game record set by “Lonely End” Bill Carpenter, Class of ‘60. Gary was a huge contributor and a big part of our memorable 7 and 3 season, including beating Navy, again. He was hugely respected, and much loved in our class.

Michie Stadium West Point — Gary at work in Michie Stadium, West Point, NY

Decades later, at the 2008 Founders Day dinner at Fort Lewis, a tableful of classmates reminisced about how much that football team had meant to us. Gary’s name came up.

“Great athlete.” “Great guy.” People nodded. One of my classmates said, “You know, Gary was the first African-American ever to play football for Army.” Everyone emphatically protested. That couldn’t possibly be true, we argued. For one thing, we had come to West Point in 1965, and African-American players in Division 1 weren’t exactly a novelty by then. For another, well, we just all would have known about it, if that had been the case. Gary was such a seamless part of the team, and of the class, we would surely have known that.

Someone took out his smart phone and looked it up. Sure enough, Gary had in fact been Army’s first African-American varsity football letter- man. And even as well-known as he was in our class, most of us didn’t even know it decades later. We were stunned. But that’s exactly what kind of classmate Gary was, and what kind of man he became.

Gary Steel Army Team — Gary Steele, Army Football

Footnotes:

Michie Stadium (MIKE-ey) is West Point’s football stadium, named for Dennis Michie, USMA 1893, who played football at West Point and was Army’s first football coach. He was killed in the Spanish American War in Cuba in 1898, aged 28.
Steve Lindell, USMA ’69, was Army’s starting quarterback.
Until the mid-1970s, plebes were required to eat their meals sitting at an exaggerated position of attention – “bracing” – and in silence. For special occasions, the plebe class could be temporarily excused from bracing at meals, which was known as “falling out”. Winning an important football game would often get the plebes a “fallout” for the week following the game.

Oct 24 2019

Two Tales of a City, 2015 – Part 2

Fast forward to 2015. Not only were Sally and I looking forward to a nostalgic trip back to Germany and a visit with friends in Augsburg and Ansbach, but we also had the pleasure of sharing this journey with our sixteen-year-old grandson Gavin. Forty-two years from our first visit, we landed in Berlin on December 7, excited to see how the city had changed. We could never have imagined how great that change would be.

Our new Marriott hotel was located near Potsdamer Platz, a section of the city that was once behind the Wall in the former East Berlin. As we walked about the area we were stuck by the vibrancy, prosperity, new development, and excitement of locals and visitors. Busy stores, restaurants, and businesses abounded. As we crisscrossed the city the brick trace of the Wall, laid out in brass, could be seen meandering along the pavements and streets. Except for chunks here and there the Wall was gone but its history not forgotten.

Checkpoint Charlie now existed only as a tourist stop, the guard house remaining but actors in quasi military dress now playing the crossing guards. Museums to recall the Nazi era, the Holocaust, Cold War, East German gadgets and lifestyle were all available to the public to visit and to remember, with sobering clarity and sometimes with humor. We’ll never forget walking past Trabi World Tours.

Sally by a Trabant tourist rental Dec 2015

The old Trabant had made a comeback! An enterprising and apparently successful Berliner provided rentals for tourists. Who could resist travelling the city and experiencing a ride in this unforgettable “classic”!? It was another great example of entrepreneurial capitalism popping up in unexpected places.

Perhaps our most enduring memory came at the start of our trip. When we landed in Berlin it was late afternoon, and as our taxi sped into the city the early December night had fallen. The lights along the streets showed a city alive with activity and the Christmas season beginning. Straight ahead we could see in the distance the Brandenburg Gate brightly lit. Through its arches were clearly visible an enormous Christmas tree, a large Menorah and Star of David. All three were brightly shining and spoke in such a powerful way of reconciliation in a city once torn by hatred and oppression. We will always be grateful for the blessing of this gracious memory, a beautiful benediction to our Berlin experiences. Indeed, “… it was the best of times.”

Inside the Brandenburg Gate in former East Berlin

P.S. From co-authors, Eric and Sally: for excellent reference, we recommend the book

The Collapse, The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall, by Mary Elise Sarotte.

Oct 24 2019

Two Tales of a City, 1973 – Part 1

INTRODUCTION:

November 9, 2019, marks the 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall.

In 1961 when most of the West Point Class of 1969 were enjoying their first heady experiences of high school, construction began on a wall that would split Berlin into two distinct and isolated sectors. This event, emblematic of the greater divide between Communist Europe and the free West, was probably little noticed by those teenagers, but it had huge implications in the way they would come to see the world and serve their country over the next thirty plus years.

Part I

With apologies to Charles Dickens for playing on the title of his classic novel, “A Tale of Two Cities,” our story is two tales of a city divided and ultimately reunified. Dickens began his tale with the memorable line, “It was the best of times. it was the worst of times…”. Our story begins, “It was the worst of times…”

SIDEBAR: The Wall

By 1961, more than 3.5 million East Germans (about 20% of their population) had fled communist occupation for freedom in the West, frequently exiting through Berlin. The Soviets and East Germany, fearing the exodus would only get worse, began a second blockade of the city, dividing Berlin into two cities. This time they succeeded.

Construction of a barrier began on 13 August 1961, sealing off West Berlin into a virtual island within Soviet controlled East Germany. Consisting of concrete walls, barbed wire, guard dogs, bunkers, guard towers with machine guns and a death strip or no-mans-land of anti-vehicle trenches, this impenetrable Wall dramatically symbolized the “Iron Curtain” that separated East Germany and other Soviet bloc countries from the West.

Over the next 28 years, approximately 5,000 citizens of East Berlin managed to escape and at least 140 were killed attempting to gain freedom. Then, on 9 November 1989, when East German authorities, through an extraordinary confluence of events, announced that it would allow limited visits to West Berlin, masses descended on the Wall, breaching the barrier. On 22 December 1989, the Brandenburg Gate was opened. Official demolition of the Wall began on 13 June 1990 and finally ended on 3 October 1992.

“It was the worst of times.” Vietnam was winding down and the Army in Europe was suffering morale and serious drug problems when I arrived fresh from a combat tour in Vietnam for a three-year assignment at Herzo Base, Headquarters of 210^th Field Artillery Group, outside the town of Herzogenaurach, West Germany. In 1973, while commanding C Battery, 1^st Battalion, 33d Field Artillery (a nuclear-capable Honest John Rocket firing battery) I decided to give my troops a hands-on lesson to explain why we were in Germany and to see the face of our adversary, up close and personal. I knew there was no better place for troops to learn that lesson than Berlin, the epicenter of the Cold War. Having gained command approval for this “adventure training” and receiving official transportation orders, I gathered a group of soldiers and wives for a memorable trip … and my first view of Berlin.

During that time in order for active duty soldiers to travel to Berlin, special military travel authorization had to be issued by the US Army Europe Headquarters, translated in Russian and French. These “Flag Orders” (so called by the US flag header atop the orders – see inset, below) remained in our personal possession throughout our visit and were carefully checked by East German guards. With these orders in hand, we boarded the “Duty Train” at the Frankfurt Bahnhof (main train station) on 5 October 1973 late in the evening and traveled in darkness (as required by Communist authorities) through East Germany to West Berlin, arriving early morning on 6 October. We travelled with shades drawn at all windows and as we crossed into East Germany, the train stopped for our orders and ID cards to be checked. Although we each were assigned old-fashioned, private couchettes with bunk beds, no one fully relaxed, or, in my wife Sally’s case, changed out of street clothes.

On arrival in West Berlin, we checked into military lodging and began touring a vibrant city, whose citizens hustled energetically along busy streets to offices, restaurants, and homes brightly lit at night in stark contrast to her surrounding neighbors in East Berlin shrouded in darkness. Our first view of the famous Brandenburg Gate, blocked by the ugly Wall, was one I never forgot. For me, it embodied the hatred and fear of malignant Communist tyranny determined to oppress its people and to spread its cancer across the globe. I was proud then, as now, to be an American soldier dedicated to preserving the freedoms of the West and protecting those in need.

One highlight of the trip for all was a visit to Checkpoint Charlie, the best-known official crossing point between West and East Berlin. From the wooden observation platform, my troops and I looked directly across the Wall and the “death strip” into the eyes of East German guards in a gun tower with orders to shoot anyone attempting to flee East Berlin. It was a sobering experience.

Checkpoint Charlie Berlin Wall 1973 — Sally at Checkpoint Charlie – October 1973

Death Strip Berlin Wall — Looking across the Death Strip

American side warning Berlin Wall — Achtung! Warning at the border of the American Sector

One evening, Sally and I traveled from the American Sector to the French Sector for a special dinner at the French Officers’ Club. After a wonderful meal with the time now past 11 pm, we walked to the nearest UBahn (subway) station and hopped aboard the first train heading back to the American sector and our temporary lodging. Little did we know that we would find ourselves traveling through the bowels of East Berlin making 2 underground stops, where Grenztruppen (East German Border Guards) stood watch armed with the East German version of the AK-47. Darkened, littered and unwelcoming, the East German stations allowed passengers to leave the train, but no one got on. With a Top-Secret clearance, nuclear duty assignment, and my GI haircut, Sally sat holding her breath and I sat slumping in the seat hoping not to draw undue attention! Fortunately, our brief and unauthorized excursion into communist territory ended without drama and we once again entered the brightly lit, clean, and vibrant West Berlin station in the American sector.

UBahn map of West & East Berlin lines 1973

Although tourists could and did visit East Berlin, American military personnel with security clearances were not authorized to do so.

Interestingly, in 1984 on a second assignment to Europe, I did once again visit East Berlin while Aide to the SACEUR (Supreme Allied Commander of Europe) General Bernard Rogers (USMA Class of June 1943) – this time in an official status. General Rogers, along with a group of distinguished visitors and wives, was being given a VIP tour. Our guide proudly drove us through the city, many areas still in ruins from WWII bombing, and pointed out their officer housing area, reminiscent of inner-city subsidized housing with over-grown grass, trash, and windows partially covered with sheets or blankets. We were escorted into a Zeiss Optics store, where “shopping” consisted of standing at a counter and asking a clerk to retrieve the item you wanted. She would retrieve it for you to see, but not handle.

As we crossed a major city street, I will never forget the discordant racket and dense exhaust smoke of traffic, consisting mainly of Trabants, the flimsy East German car with a 2-cycle engine, once described by a well-known automotive journalist as “loud, slow, poorly designed, and badly built.” This automotive gem, I learned, was available to East-Bloc customers after waiting only 13 years to buy their own car.

When in West Berlin with General Rogers, we stayed at the beautiful “Wannseehaus” which had been the site of the infamous Wannsee Conference held in January 1942 (where Nazi high officials met to decide and coordinate plans for Hitler’s “Final Solution”). After the war its reputation was somewhat redeemed as an Allied war reparation asset, and later as a museum to the Holocaust.

One evening while there, the SACEUR hosted a dinner party for various dignitaries, which included the Swedish Ambassador to East Berlin. The ambassador obviously enjoyed his posting and regaled us with stories of the lifestyle of Communist party officials entertaining him and other dignitaries. It was quite busy, he said, with frequent lavish dinner parties, featuring the choicest foods and finest wines, cruises, and social events. When asked how these luxuries were available in East Germany, he laughed and said the Communist officials sent a truck daily to West Berlin to stock up at the KaDeWe, the city’s enormous department/grocery store, second only to Harrods in London. For all of the deprivations of the average East German citizen, Communist officials lived the life of luxury, all enabled by the bounty of the West. As the old saying goes, some Communist comrades were “more equal than others!”

Oct 22 2019

An Adventure in the “Socialist Paradise” – 1990

In 1990, as an exchange officer serving in the State Department, I was involved in arms control negotiations and treaty compliance issues between our country and the Soviet Union. One aspect was the a diplomatic “tit for tat” unspoken rule – whatever we allowed or did – they did.

Under the ABM Treaty we constantly met on compliance issues and a “big” one at the time was the legal placement of Long-Range Phased Array (LPAR) radars. They were by treaty to be on each’s periphery and facing “out.” They complained about our upgraded one at Thule, Greenland as not being on our soil (we said it was “grandfathered” before the treaty and could be upgraded). We complained about theirs at Krasnoyarsk as not being on the periphery and overlooking Siberia (in truth their construction of such massive buildings had to be not on permafrost and its location may have been chosen for that reason.)

Russia Radar Site — Pechora Radar Site, Russia

In the relaxed tensions after the fall of the Berlin Wall, we engaged in “confidence building measures” with our Soviet counterparts. One such was the idea of trips to each other’s LPARs to demonstrate only early warning capabilities. In the Fall of 1990, we engaged in one that I had a part in developing. We took them to Thule and they took us to Pechora above the Arctic circle in Russia. Both radars had essentially the same capability but were quite different in size and construction. Since theirs was clearly “legal” then we got the added admission that ours at Thule was too – reciprocity in action.

LPAR site Greenland — US LPAR, Thule Greenland

We went first and hosted them in Washington for a week of sightseeing, shopping, and meals. Their delegation was populated, as was ours, with intel and military experts and not the standard diplomatic types. That was interesting as most had never traveled to the West before and exposure to our country was quite the shock.

We put them up at the Dulles Hilton and took them to the Tysons Mall for a shopping experience. They thought the mall was a “Potemkin Village.” (A Potemkin Village was a Russian Czarist era phony “show place” created to deceive the viewer.) So, we took them to the Springfield mall the next day to show them the reality of the commercial shopping. The DC area traffic also amazed them – so many privately- owned vehicles of all types. They could not believe the abundance in the stores – or the wide variety of products.

Socialist grocery — American Abundance Evident to the Visitors

We then flew them to the US base at Thule, Greenland with the Danish Embassy Deputy Chief of Mission along to further emphasize the “legality” of the Thule radar although not on “our territory” but on Danish territory.

Soon it was our turn and we went to the Soviet Union for a week of sightseeing and dining in Moscow – followed by a flight to Pechora. It was eye opening as the Soviet economic system was still in place – although the black market thrived.

Our Russian hosts were very accommodating allowing us the same ability to see and even video things at the sites we had given them. So, we saw the socialist paradise at its best. A few anecdotal events were illuminating – and central control of economy exposed. They needed a cost mechanism called “price.”

My first observation was at a dinner at our hotel, a Stalin-era structure. We could not get service or the attention from any waiter, and those who did around us got it very slowly. The waiter got paid whether he served us, or did not serve us, I guess. We loudly complained that we thought that our host (a KGB general) would not be very pleased with our treatment. We were then served immediately.

Our rooms were quite spartan. The toilet paper was soft as a paper bag. We had brought several rolls of our own and these proved to be very well received “tips” for the maids. The floor had an old woman seated in the hall. Our room keys were tied to a very large object and we had to give them to her when we left. I guess so they could be sure when we were out and were free to “inspect” our rooms. Also, there were no shower curtains around the tub and shower. This concerned our female members of the delegation.

Moscow hotel — Ukraina Hotel, Moscow (today)

Going to dinner in Moscow, we noticed the embassy van had the windshield wiper rubber blades removed. Apparently, these were in short supply in the community and would be taken if left on the vehicle. As currency rates were grossly inflated officially (rubles were worthless except “officially”), we had to be very careful of the use of dollars and rubles. So, we also carried Marlboro cigarettes, a very favorite of the many chain-smoking Russians. A few packs were offered to bystanders to watch over our vehicle while we dined in the restaurant.

Our shopping trip was not to GUM (state department store in Red Square) but along the Arbot. A street allowed to trade in basically black market and bartered exchanges. There were many lines along the state shops and stores with many empty shelves. Folks would line up when any shipment came into a state store. For instance, if boots arrived all would be gone in a moment – even if the customer did not need boots or they were not his size. They were material for bartering for what he did need.

One very interesting site was a Pepsi-Cola vending machine. The Soviets had purchased the rights to bottle it as an alternative to the national drink – vodka. But the system had its planning flaws as there was a shortage of paper cups. So, there was a metal dipper chained to the machine as a drinking cup. One dropped in the kopeks and used the dipper to catch the Pepsi and drink from it. There were not many takers for the community ladle.

We spent some time at the old American Embassy. The newly constructed one could not be used for any sensitive business as the Russian and Polish construction crews had managed to make listening devices part of the concrete pour. The new one did have housing, a bowling alley, and recreation areas. During the week, I observed a road repair crew fixing a single pothole in the street we crossed each day. It was probably an hour job, but these guys managed to take four days – no incentive to getting the job done early.

Much of the trip dealt with information gathering on their radar capabilities and answering our questions on their massive structures. Suffice it to say, the separate transmitter and eleven-story receiver buildings housed massive tubes and floors of old 1960s computer racks. They essentially got the same definition on their screens as our smaller arrays and laptops, but at what a cost! They simply did not have cost or efficiency measures to worry about. And all designs were the same, no matter where they were built. I used the restroom on the top 11^th floor at Pechora site and it would not flush. Embarrassed, I reported the problem to my escort. He had a soldier go down and get a bucket of water. Apparently, the local water tower was well below the 11^th floor level – but the state design called for a restroom on each floor!

So, as we contemplate any socialist state these days, we must beware of central planning, and its consequences and inefficiencies. Incentive is lost and the lack of the simple valuable element called “real price” makes for poor allocation of resources.